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Today, I'd like to focus on a topic that has been capturing widespread attention in the global financial market recently—the continuous fluctuations between the RMB and USD exchange rates. For anyone involved in international trade, investment, or even daily cross-border consumption, these fluctuations are not just numbers on a screen; they have tangible impacts on our economies, businesses, and lives.

First, let's take a look at the recent performance of the RMB-USD exchange rate. Since the start of 2026, the onshore RMB against the US dollar has shown a strong upward trend, with the spot exchange rate hitting a nearly 32-month high of 6.9700 on January 12, and accumulating an appreciation of about 0.2% so far this year. Meanwhile, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar has also risen by 0.26% cumulatively, approaching the key 7.0 mark. However, this upward trend is not linear. For example, on January 13, the onshore RMB closed at 6.9765 against the US dollar, down 23 points from the previous trading day, reflecting the two-way fluctuation characteristics of the exchange rate market.

So, what are the driving forces behind these continuous fluctuations? In fact, it is the result of the resonance of internal and external factors. Externally, the Federal Reserve launched an interest rate cut cycle in 2025, with a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points, which led to a pullback in the US dollar index from a high level and reduced the pressure on the RMB from the outside. The market's strong expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 have also further weakened the appeal of the US dollar, prompting capital to flow to more promising emerging markets including China. Internally, China's exports have maintained relatively strong resilience. It is expected that the trade surplus will exceed 1.1 trillion US dollars in 2025, reaching a historical high, which provides sufficient liquidity support for the foreign exchange market. In addition, the seasonal demand for foreign exchange and settlement at the end of last year and the beginning of this year has increased, and the continuous inflow of northbound funds has also enhanced the attractiveness of RMB assets, jointly boosting the strength of the RMB.

The fluctuations of the RMB-USD exchange rate have a profound impact on the global economy, enterprises and individuals. On a global scale, the appreciation of the RMB and the weakening of the US dollar have alleviated the debt pressure of emerging market countries that rely on US dollar foreign debt, and also made US export goods more price-competitive in the international market. At the same time, the rising global transaction share of the RMB has accelerated the process of de-dollarization, and the international monetary system is moving towards a more multi-polar pattern.

For Chinese enterprises, especially export-oriented ones, the impact is more direct. When the RMB appreciates, the profits denominated in US dollars will be eroded. For example, a 100 million US dollar order will directly reduce the enterprise's income by 15 million yuan in RMB when the exchange rate rises from 7.15 to 7.0. This makes overseas customers hesitant to place orders and slows down the order receiving rhythm. However, for import-dependent enterprises, the appreciation of the RMB reduces the cost of importing raw materials such as crude oil and chips, effectively alleviating the pressure of imported inflation. Faced with exchange rate risks, more and more enterprises are shifting from passive acceptance to active management, using financial derivatives such as forward contracts, swaps and options to hedge risks.

For individuals, the fluctuations also bring tangible changes. The appreciation of the RMB has significantly reduced the cost of foreign exchange for study-abroad families, making overseas travel and cross-border online shopping more cost-effective. At the same time, the inflow of foreign capital has driven the growth of some sectors in the A-share market, allowing ordinary people to indirectly share the value-added dividends of RMB assets through funds and stocks.

Looking ahead, the consensus in the industry is that the RMB exchange rate will continue to show a normal state of two-way fluctuations, and the probability of a one-way trend of appreciation or depreciation is low. The central economic work conference has proposed for many years to "maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level", and the central bank also emphasizes preventing the risk of exchange rate overshooting, which will help curb the pro-cyclical one-way herding effect in the foreign exchange market.

For market entities, adhering to the principle of "risk neutrality" is the long-term strategy. Enterprises should focus on their main businesses, abandon speculative bets on exchange rate trends, and control exchange rate risks within an acceptable range through reasonable financial tools. For individuals, it is necessary to rationally view exchange rate fluctuations and arrange cross-border consumption and asset allocation according to their own needs.

In conclusion, the continuous fluctuations between the RMB and USD exchange rates are a reflection of the changes in the global economic pattern and the operation of market laws. It not only brings challenges but also contains opportunities. By understanding the driving factors behind the fluctuations, grasping the impact rules, and taking scientific response measures, we can better navigate the waves of exchange rate fluctuations and achieve stable development in the context of global economic changes.